The Age of Spiritual Machines - Ray Kurzweil, ebook
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The Age of Spiritual Machines [039-035-5.0]When Computers Exceed Human IntelligenceBy: Ray KurzweilSynopsis:How much do we humans enjoy our current status as the most intelligentbeings on earth? Enough to try to stop our own inventions fromsurpassing us in smarts? If so, we'd better pull the plug right now,because if Ray Kurzweil is right, we've only got until about 2020 beforecomputers outpace the human brain in computational power. Kurzweil,artificial intelligence expert and author of [38]The Age of IntelligentMachines, shows that technological evolution moves at an exponentialpace. Further, he asserts, in a sort of swirling postulate, time speedsup as order increases, and vice versa. He calls this the "Law of Timeand Chaos," and it means that although entropy is slowing the stream oftime down for the universe overall, and thus vastly increasing theamount of time between major events, in the eddy of technologicalevolution the exact opposite is happening, and events will soon becoming faster and more furiously. This means that we'd better figure outhow to deal with conscious machines as soon as possible--they'll soonnot only be able to beat us at chess, they'll likely demand civilrights, and they may at last realize the very human dream ofimmortality.Viking Press Copyright 1999ISBN 0-670-88217-8A NOTE TO THE READER As a photon wends its way through an arrangement ofglass panes and mirrors, its path remains ambiguous. It essentiallytakes every possible path available to it (apparently these photons havenot read Robert Frost's poem "The Road Not Taken"). This ambiguityremains until observation by a conscious observer forces the particle todecide which path it had taken. Then the uncertainty is resolved -retroactively - and it is as if the selected path had been taken allalong.Like these quantum particles, you - the reader - have choices to make inyour path through this book. You can read the chapters as I intendedthem to be read, in sequential order. Or, after reading the Prologue,you may decide that the future can't wait, and you wish to immediatelyjump to the chapters in Part III on the twenty-first century (the tableof contents on the next pages offers a description of each chapter). Youmay then make your way back to the earlier chapters that describe thenature and origin of the trends and forces that will manifest themselvesin this coming century. Or, perhaps, your course will remain ambiguousuntil the end. But when you come to the Epilogue, any remainingambiguity will be resolved, and it will be as if you had always intendedto read the book in the order that you selected.CONTENTSA NOTE TO THE READER ... VACKNOWLEDGMENTS ... XIPROLOGUE: AN INEXORABLE EMERGENCE Before the next century is over, humanbeings will no longer be the most intelligent or capable type of entityon the planet. Actually, let me take that back. The truth of that laststatement depends on how we define human.PART ONE: PROBING THE PASTCHAPTER ONE: THE LAW OF TIME AND CHAOS ... 9For the past forty years, in accordance with Moore's Law, the power oftransistor-based computing has been growing exponentially. But by theyear 2020, transistor features will be just a few atoms thick, andMoore's Law will have run its course. What then? To answer this criticalquestion, we need to understand the exponential nature of time.CHAPTER TWO: THE INTELLIGENCE OF EVOLUTION ... 40Can an intelligence create another intelligence more intelligent thanitself? Are we more intelligent than the evolutionary process thatcreated us? In turn, will the intelligence that we are creating come toexceed that of its creator?CHAPTER THREE: OF MIND AND MACHINES ... 51"I am lonely and bored, please keep me company." If your computerdisplayed this message on its screen, would that convince you that it isconscious and has feelings? Before you say no too quickly, we need toconsider how such a plaintive message originated.CHAPTER FOUR: A NEW FORM OF INTELLIGENCE ON EARTH ... 66Intelligence rapidly creates satisfying, sometimes surprising plans thatmeet an array of constraints. Clearly, no simple formula can emulatethis most powerful of phenomena. Actually, that's wrong. All that isneeded to solve a surprisingly wide range of intelligent problems isexactly this: simple methods combined with heavy doses of computation,itself a simple process.CHAPTER FIVE: CONTEXT AND KNOWLEDGE ... 89It is sensible to remember today's insights for tomorrow's challenges.It is not fruitful to rethink every problem that comes along. This isparticularly true for humans, due to the extremely slow speed of ourcomputing circuitry.PART TWO: PREPARING THE PRESENTCHAPTER SIX: BUILDING NEW BRAINS ... 101Evolution has found a way around the computational limitations of neuralcircuitry. Cleverly, it has created organisms who in turn invented acomputational technology a million times faster than carbon-basedneurons. Ultimately, the computing conducted on extremely slow mammalianneural circuits will be ported to a far more versatile and speedierelectronic (and photonic) equivalent.CHAPTER SEVEN: ... AND BODIES ... 133A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. So what kind of bodieswill we provide for our twenty-first-century machines?Later on, the question will become: What sort of bodies will theyprovide for themselves?CHAPTER EIGHT: 1999 ... 157If all the computers in 1960 stopped functioning, few people would havenoticed. Circa 1999 is another matter. Although computers still lack asense of humor, a gift for small talk, and other endearing qualities ofhuman thought, they are nonetheless mastering an increasingly diversearray of tasks that previously required human intelligence.PART THREE: TO FACE THE FUTURECHAPTER NINE: 2009 ... 189It is now 2009. A $1,000 personal computer can perform about a trillioncalculations per second. Computers are imbedded in clothing and jewelry.Most routine business transactions take place between a human and avirtual personality. Translating telephones are commonly used. Humanmusicians routinely jam with cybernetic musicians. The neo-Ludditemovement is growing.CHAPTER TEN: 2019 ... 202A $1,000 computing device is now approximately equal to thecomputational ability of the human brain. Computers are now largelyinvisible and are embedded everywhere. Three-dimensional virtual-realitydisplays, embedded in glasses and contact lenses, provide the primaryinterface for communication with other persons, the Web, and virtualreality. Most interaction with computing is through gestures and two-waynatural-language spoken communication. Realistic all-encompassingvisual, auditory, and tactile environments enable people to do virtuallyanything with anybody regardless of physical proximity. People arebeginning to have relationships with automated personalities ascompanions, teachers, caretakers, and lovers.CHAPTER ELEVEN: 2029 ... 220A $1,000 unit of computation has the computing capacity of approximatelyone thousand human brains. Direct neural pathways have been perfectedfor high-bandwidth connection to the human brain. A range of neuralimplants is becoming available to enhance visual and auditory perceptionand interpretation, memory, and reasoning. Computers have read allavailable humanand machine-generated literature and multimedia material.There is growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and whatconstitutes being human. Machines claim to be conscious and these claimsare largely accepted.CHAPTER TWELVE: 2099There is a strong trend toward a merger of human thinking with the worldof machine intelligence that the human species initially created. Thereis no longer any clear distinction between humans and computers. Mostconscious entities do not have a permanent physical presence.Machine-based intelligences derived from extended models of humanintelligence claim to be human. Most of these intelligences are not tiedto a specific computational processing unit. The number ofsoftware-based humans vastly exceeds those still using nativeneuron-cell-based computation. Even among those human intelligencesstill using carbon-based neurons, there is ubiquitous use ofneural-implant technology that provides enormous augmentation of humanperceptual and cognitive abilities. Humans who do not utilize suchimplants are unable to meaningfully participate in dialogues with thosewho do. Life expectancy is no longer a viable term in relation tointelligent beings.EPILOGUE: THE REST OF THE UNIVERSE REVISITED ... 253Intelligent beings consider the fate of the universe.TIME LINE ... 261HOW TO BUILD AN INTELLIGENT MACHINE IN THREE EASY PARADIGMS ... 287GLOSSARY ... 298NOTES ... 375SUGGESTED READINGS ... 344WEB LINKS ... 369ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to the many personswho have provided inspiration, patience, ideas, criticism, insight, andall manner of assistance for this project. In particular, I would liketo thank:My wife, Sonya, for her loving patience through the twists and turns ofthe creative process My mother for long engaging walks with me when Iwas a child in the Woods of Queens (yes, there were forests in Queens,New York, when I was growing up) and for her enthusiastic interest inand early support for my not-always-fully-baked ideas My Viking editors,Barbara Grossman and Dawn Drzal, for their insightful guidance andeditorial expertise and the dedicated team at Viking Penguin, includingSusan Petersen, publisher...
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